To discuss Ken Fisher's Debunkery – Bunk 9 – Ken Fisher gives readers a scenario. Suppose it's a bear market. The big, the bad, and the ugly one! Maybe you have stayed invested throughout — that sure hurts near term. Plus, bear market volatility is huge and scary. Should you bail, wait out the end, then get back in when the signs are clearer? (Ken Fisher asks another question: Are you that good a market timer?)
Or maybe you are out and know you need to get back in. But when? All that whipsawing is beyond terrifying. Better to just wait until it is certain the bear market is over, a new bull has begun, and all is clear, right?
No — Ken Fisher explains, as counterintuitive as it seems, risk is actually least just when sentiment is most black — right as a bear market hits its lowest depths. Clarity is one of the most expensive things to purchase in capital markets and is almost always an illusion.
Ken Fisher states no one can perfectly time a bear market bottom. Someone telling you otherwise is deluding himself (or herself) or trying to mislead you (see Bunk 11). Or got lucky once.
Read more details of BUNK 9 in Ken Fisher's Debunkery.